submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. DollarsFirstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto DollarsDue to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional DevelopmentsIn addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future OpportunitiesThere is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
 How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
 The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
 Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
 Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
 Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
 Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
 McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
 Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
 Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
 Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
 Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
 The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
 Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
 Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
 New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
 Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
 Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
 Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
 Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
 Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
"crypto ?(trading|investing)","(should(| I)|could(| I)|can(| I)|how to|is it worth) (buy|sell|mine|min)(|ing) (btc|btcs|bitcoin|ether|etherium|eth|litecoin|ripple|altcoin)"
https://preview.redd.it/kwxqpewxxsz11.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=853089f6dbc5f104b807fb33e70820233c9baf8asubmitted by Level01Exchange to u/Level01Exchange [link] [comments]
The crash happened. Not once, not twice, but certainly more than thrice. It is as thrilling as it is uncertain. It is Bitcoin and Morgan Stanley said it is behaving a lot like how Nasdaq did in the dot-com bubble but 15 times faster.
Investors with high-risk appetite love Bitcoin’s speculative trading patterns because it comes with juicy high-yield returns. Having said that, there are not many high-risk investors in the global investment market because the bulk of the population consists of many other types of investors who do not find Bitcoin an attractive investment for their portfolios. They label Bitcoin as “a volatile store of value” and veer away for safety.
Being the first cryptocurrency to emerge from Blockchain technology, Bitcoin forged the perception of price-instability, risk and volatility. But eight years have since passed and the more recent BlockChain technologies like Ethereum emerged with multiple platforms that innovate and disrupt many industries. These platforms shift the focus away from cryptocurrencies as financial tools and move it more toward a utilitarian purpose that promises to be stable enough for everyday use, yet lucrative enough as an investment vehicle.
This is huge because the demand for a stable coin or token can easily surpass the demand for volatile cryptocurrency. If a coin or token demonstrates the ability to be as stable as say the US Dollar, people would be comfortable to buy, sell or invest with it daily. When that happens, the masses would become active users of the platform, and this creates a robust, vibrant and fundamentally solid digital economy that could grow big enough to rival any given country’s GDP growth.
LVX: DESIGNED FOR LONG TERM GROWTH The LVX token is a great example of a price-stable coin. It is a native token on Level01, the World’s First Brokerless Derivatives Exchange in Partnership with Thomson Reuters. The LVX token is designed to be a universal asset currency on the platform as it can be used to trade all kinds of derivatives like crypto currencies, commodities, forex and stocks; it can also be converted to Bitcoin or Ethereum, which can then be converted to any fiat currency like USD, RMB and EUD. The founders of Level01 employ smart tokenomics and platform design to drive sustainable long-term growth and efficiency. In simple layman terms, this means this digital ecosystem and its native currency are built to last forever. How is this possible?
Well, are several measures in place:
THE CAP The Cap is a gatekeeper to retaining token value in a healthy digital economy. It is counterproductive to have unlimited tokens because investors are not incentivized to purchase in the short term. Level01’s ICO (Initial Coin Offering) issued its native LVX tokens with the total supply capped at 1,200,000,000 (1.2 Billion) tokens. The sheer size of the issued tokens is large enough to invite global user participation, while the finite amount helps creates scarcity and incentives for people to purchase the tokens immediately. For those doubting, the derivatives market is worth 1.2 quadrillion according to Investopedia, thus our LVX token quantity is actually small and will go up and demand increases.
THE VALUE AND LIQUIDITY Money is a trustworthy unit of account, and store of value with tremendous liquidity. The LVX token meets the very same criteria by virtue of being an ERC20 token on the Ethereum. These tokens enable transparent and fair settlement, because transactions are handled by smart contracts that programmatically disburse returns to trade winners.
To strengthen liquidity and value, the LVX token will be registered on prominent cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, and be made available for actual trading and exchange with other cryptocurrencies and commodities.
THE WHALES ARE KEPT AWAY Imagine sitting on a seesaw with a whale. There is just no way, you’re going to enjoy the ride because the whale dominates with his weight. The founders of Level01 understand this basic principle and recognize that the true value of the token crowd-sale manifests in its early contributors and diverse community. Every effort is then made to ensure the token sales are distributed to many investors, rather than allowing the concentration of the platform tokens in the hands of single large investors or groups, also known as ‘whales’.
THERE IS TOKEN UTILITY Beyond the promise of a stable trading environment, Level01 rewards early adopters of the token through incentivized staking. LVX tokens can be ‘staked’ by investors to host trading rooms where group-trading events are held, and investors can earn traderoom-hosting commissions. The staked tokens are reimbursed through smart contracts after a staking duration.
Investors are free to use tokens to organize tournaments in daily, weekly, fortnightly and monthly intervals. Tournament host organizers then earn a percentage of tournament fees raised during the event.
These mechanisms encourage investor participation to occur organically at a rate that benefits everyone on the Level01 platform.
THERE IS TRANSPARENCY Level01 investors are privy to transparent market data verified by Thomson Reuters. Historical and real-time data from a credible source empowers investors to make their own financial decisions. On top of that, LVX tokens provide the means to transparent and fair settlement on the Blockchain because it is handled by smart contracts that are programmatically disbursed to trade winners, as trading profits.
These measures secure LVX’s price-stability and make it a viable token or coin for investment. As more users or investors come on board Level01, the global investment market will witness the full potential of a Brokerless Derivatives Exchange.
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